The Committee indicated that revised area planted and production figures will be released before the end of February, relying heavily on data gathered from producers. Picture: Bongani Mbatha/Independent Newspapers
The latest preliminary report from the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), released on Tuesday has raised concerns for some summer crops, particularly wheat and barley, which are forecast to yield less than last season.
However, farmers and industry experts cautioned that it was still premature to predict the outcome of the season, emphasising that the forthcoming month of rains will be pivotal for crop viability.
According to the CEC’s report, expected production for wheat has been slightly downgraded to 1.925 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 0.52% or 10 100 tons from the previous estimate of 1.935 million tons.
The Western Cape, a crucial region for wheat farming, anticipates a yield of 1.067 million tons, which is a 1.69% drop, equating to 18 400 tons less than predicted earlier.
For canola, the expected output was also lowered to 287 445 tons, a 2.71% decline or 8 000 tons from the previous estimate of 295 445 tons. In addition, oats are forecast to yield 41 300 tons from 31 000 hectares of planted land, resulting in an anticipated yield of 1.33 tons per hectare.
In a contrasting trend, the preliminary area estimate for maize has shown an increase.
The total area for maize planting is 2.646 million hectares, marginally up by 0.38% or 9 950 hectares from the last season. Specifically, white maize reflects a notable growth, with an area estimate reaching 1.600 million hectares, up by 2.89% (44 950 hectares).
Conversely, yellow maize has faced a reduction, with the area estimate down by 3.24%, now at 1.046 million hectares.
The Committee indicated that revised area planted and production figures will be released before the end of February, relying heavily on data gathered from producers. This means the agricultural community will have to wait until then for more definitive yield insights.
Industry experts have stressed the CEC’s efforts to provide accurate and relevant information, recognising the challenges of predicting agricultural outcomes.
Bennie van Zyl, general manager of TLU SA, said they respected the CEC’s calculations and estimates on what is the primary crop planting outcome.
“We respect that they are trying to determine what the outcome for the yield for the season will be. It's not so easy to make these predictions and calculations,” he said.
Van Zyl added that maize was resilient with a strong recovery capacity, illustrating that even when planting times are delayed, chances for good yields remain if conditions improve, especially rainfall.
However, he said at this stage it was very difficult to say what will be the outcome for the season.
“There are certain areas where maize, sunflower, and soya beans will definitely be needing some rain. I think the next estimate from CEC at the end of February will be crucial to give us an indication of what the outcome will be,” he said.
“Now it's a crucial time; as soon as the maize gets into seed, we need rain and moisture for them so that they can produce yield.”
Meanwhile, Jaco Minnaar, president of Agri SA, echoed the sentiment that while current planting estimates aligned with expectations, they did not yet reflect the probable crop size, which won’t be clearer until late February.
“Only then will we have an idea of the estimated crop size. With the current drier conditions, especially in the western side of the summer crop growing area, the crop is taking strain and it will have an impact on the crop size of especially white maize and soybeans,” Minnaar said.
Concerns have captured attention particularly in the drier western regions, where water shortages could significantly affect production, especially for white maize and soybeans.
Investment analyst Anthony Clark from Smalltalkdaily Research also referenced market pressures, noting the impact of previous weak harvests amid dry conditions and El Niño influences, which have resulted in tightening stocks and increased prices.
He underscored that white and yellow maize prices have spiked recently due to diminished tonnage, and anticipates these trends will persist until the new harvest begins to take effect.
“A drought in SADC also saw significant regional demand for available stocks, which further elevated prices for white and yellow maize. This scenario remains in force until the new harvest starts to reflect on SAFEX,” he said
“CEC update on hectares planted shows, as anticipated, higher hectares of white anticipated to be planted as farmers see the record prices for white maize.”
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