IOL PROJECTION: 'Voters are punishing ANC' - Mandela’s party set for its worst election result since 1994 under Ramaphosa

Vote2024 - Political party members and IEC officials monitor the incoming results of the 2024 National. Picture: Armand Hough /Independent Newspapers

Vote2024 - Political party members and IEC officials monitor the incoming results of the 2024 National. Picture: Armand Hough /Independent Newspapers

Published May 31, 2024


The African National Congress (ANC) will deliver their worst performance in an election since 1994 under President Cyril Ramaphosa.

As South Africa braces for the results of the national elections, IOL commissioned African Innovation Research SA (AIRSA) to run mathematical modelling using past data, voting trends and results to project the possible outcome of the elections.

AIRSA's projection suggests significant shifts in the country's political landscape.

According to the projection, the ANC is expected to receive 43.2% of the vote, marking a historic low for the party that has dominated South African politics since the end of apartheid.

The Democratic Alliance (DA), the official opposition, is projected to secure 23% of the vote.

This represents an increase from previous elections and underscores the DA's appeal among South African voters especially in the Western Cape and Gauteng.

However, the surprise package of this election has been former President Jacob Zuma's newly formed MK Party which is predicted to garner 13% of the vote.

Zuma, who remains a popular figure in South African politics, has managed to mobilise a significant portion of the electorate, capitalising on his popularity in regions such as Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by Julius Malema, are projected to obtain 11% of the vote. A similar performance to 2019 result.

According to IOL's elections analyst Roscoe Palm, these projections indicate how fragmented South Africa's political landscape is, with no single party achieving an outright majority.

This scenario would lead to coalition negotiations and a reconfiguration of South Africa's political dynamics.

"This election is a repudiation of the ANC from voters across the political spectrum. From the middle class suburbanites, to the rural poor, the electorate largely turned out to punish the ANC," says Palm.

"There is a consensus from all corners, left and right, that the ANC has not performed. It is reaping the electoral consequences for its long term failures.What the ANC does now will determine whether it can summit over 50% again," he added.

Palm says that now that the party is beyond the event horizon of a sub-50% ANC, the electorate has given itself the permission structure to reduce the ANC even further.

"Who the ANC forms a coalition with will determine the political trajectory of the country, the ANC-led alliance, and the character of the organisation itself," says Palm.