Although it has not been named yet, overnight, system No. 7-20242025 gradually structured itself and reached the stage of a tropical depression.
This follows reports about the development of a cyclone off the Madagascan coast, which could affect sea conditions along KwaZulu-Natal’s coast.
Meteorological service, Météo-France, said the system was located approximately 800km north-east of Rodrigues (Island in Mauritius) and is moving towards the west-south-west at 20km/h.
“Facing conditions that are not favourable to its intensification, the system could nevertheless reach tropical storm status tonight (Thursday) or tomorrow (Friday) morning, before weakening again as it approaches the Mascarene Islands this weekend,” Météo-France said.
“The system will remain away from inhabited land until Friday. Beyond that, a threat is possible for the Mascarenes (Rodrigues, Mauritius, Reunion), however, given the high uncertainty in the trajectory and intensity forecast at these deadlines, it is still too early to predict possible impacts on inhabited land.”
Additionally, Elvis regained strength on Thursday morning and remains at a moderate tropical storm stage.
“It continues its path towards the south-east and is currently located approximately 150km south of Cape Sainte-Marie in Madagascar,” Météo-France said.
“Over the next 24 hours, Elvis will continue its trajectory towards southern latitudes, then it will gradually lose its tropical characteristics this weekend.”
Météo-France added that Elvis is still generating very rough seas on the southern coasts of the Big Island during the day before improving overnight.
Meanwhile, in a statement, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) said a multidisciplinary team of meteorological experts are expected to gather in Lusaka, Zambia, on Thursday (today), for a week-long ‘testbed’ where they will look to improve forecasting efforts in southern Africa while disseminating relevant and life-saving weather forecasts and severe weather warnings to vulnerable communities.
Testbeds are a proven way of assessing methodologies in real-life scenarios with measurable impact and collaboration with the end users. The WISER EWSA project held southern Africa’s first testbed on nowcasting in early 2024 and scaled up ambition for the 2024/2025 rainy season.
The intensive testbed, from January 30 to February 7, marks a period within a ‘king-size’ testbed that started in October 2024 and will conclude in April 2025.
Looking at severe weather events, the statement said that with heavy downpours and wind gusts that clocked speeds of up to 63km/h, Dikeledi reportedly claimed ten lives and left thousands of people displaced in both Madagascar and Mozambique earlier this month.
Around mid-December 2024, Chido, with gusty winds of more than 200km/h, battered Mozambique, reportedly killing more than 100 people, and injuring over 800. Far more destructive than Dikeledi, Chido blew the roofs off many homes, leaving hundreds of thousands of people in distress.
“Dikeledi and Chido were the latest in a series of disasters that underscored southern Africa’s status as a region susceptible to hazardous weather events, with hundreds of thousands of people and livelihoods put at risk every year. The region is expected to experience increased storms as climate change continues to take root,” the statement read.
It said nowcasting is a detailed analysis and description of the evolution of storms over the short term from 0 to 6 hours (as opposed to a daily, weekly or seasonal forecast). Early warnings about severe weather events, such as heavy rain and thunderstorms, can help communities prepare in a way that saves lives and property.