Within days of the conflict intensifying, oil prices surged and analysts began warning about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow shipping corridor through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.
Image: File
South Africa’s fuel supply is under increasing pressure as escalating tensions in the Middle East threaten global oil flows. Experts warn that the country’s dependence on imported crude, combined with dwindling local refining capacity, leaves it exposed to price spikes, supply disruptions, and even potential fuel rationing, despite official assurances that shortages are not imminent.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) has reassured the public that there is “currently no immediate risk of fuel shortages in South Africa.”
Industry stakeholders, however, say precautionary measures are already in place to maintain stability.
The Fuels Industry Association of South Africa (FIASA) confirmed that fuel companies have introduced “controlled allocation measures to ensure ratable and equitable supply to all customers.”
These measures include restrictions on unplanned demand, with the association saying companies are banning ad hoc purchases “to prevent market speculation and stockpiling by opportunistic buyers.”
South Africa’s fuel security has become more fragile following the closure of major refineries. The country now relies on just two operational crude oil refineries — NATREF and Astron Energy — alongside the Sasol Secunda coal-to-liquids plant.
Energy and power expert Professor Vally Padayachee warned that this reduced refining capacity makes the country more vulnerable.
“South Africa's reliance on only two operational crude oil refineries, combined with the Sasol Secunda plant, still leaves us susceptible to the risk of disruptions in the supply chain, especially given our dependence on imported crude oil.”
He cautioned that any escalation in geopolitical tensions could have immediate consequences for local fuel availability.
“It would be prudent for South Africans to remain vigilant, as any sudden geopolitical escalation could lead to potentially fuel rationing and lengthy queues at petrol stations,” he said.
James Lorimer, the Democratic Alliance spokesperson on Mineral and Petroleum Resources, said while concerns about shortages exist, the threat is not immediate.
Lorimer stated that SA is “not too badly off” regarding crude oil supply, as only 18% of imports originate from Saudi Arabia. Most of the country’s crude oil comes from West African nations such as Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana.
He explained that South Africa’s fuel supply is also diversified through domestic production and refining.
According to Lorimer, nearly 40% of the country’s fuel is coal-derived through Sasol, about 10% comes from NATREF, and Astron Energy currently has adequate crude supplies.
Despite this, Lorimer expressed concern about the growing reliance on imported refined fuel following local refinery closures.
“A lot of our fuel, now that our other refineries are down, comes in as already processed petrol. For that, we depend on refineries overseas,” he said, noting much of it comes from India and the United Arab Emirates.
The DMPR confirmed that operational facilities in South Africa depend largely on crude imports from West Africa and other African producers. It added that oil companies previously reliant on conflict-affected regions are “actively exploring alternative supply sources to ensure uninterrupted fuel availability in the domestic market.”
FIASA said industry representatives currently hold weekly meetings with the DMPR, Transnet, LPG wholesalers, and oil companies. These engagements will “increase to daily meetings from March 16, 2026, to enable real-time coordination and rapid decision-making.”
Economists and logistics experts warn that even if supply remains stable, rising global oil prices are likely to drive higher domestic fuel costs.
Gavin Kelly, chief executive of the Road Freight Association, said higher fuel prices could have widespread economic consequences.
“For an economy like South Africa, which imports oil, the outcome is often inevitable: higher domestic energy prices. Once fuel prices increase, the cost of moving goods... finally to retailers is exposed to these input price increases.”
Transport companies are then forced to either raise freight rates or absorb the costs, placing immense pressure on “cash flow and reserves,” Kelly added.
Ernst van Biljon, head lecturer of Supply Chain Management at IMM Graduate School, said South Africa’s dependence on imported crude means global price increases quickly filter through to local fuel prices.
“As a net importer of crude oil, higher global prices feed directly into South Africa’s domestic fuel costs, as long as road transport remains the backbone of the country’s logistics system,” Van Biljon said.
He emphasised that businesses must plan ahead “to avoid production shutdowns and supply chains not operating at optimal levels.”
Lorimer also warned that fuel prices are likely to rise even if supply remains adequate.
“The problem is that even if we do have enough, the price is going to go up,” he said. He estimated that motorists could face increases of “perhaps another R3 a litre... if this war goes on, if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for a couple of months.”
The National Automobile Dealers’ Association said higher logistics costs would place “additional strain on already constrained consumer budgets” as price increases ripple through the economy.
Concerns are also emerging over potential shortages of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) ahead of the winter demand period.
Although FIASA says LPG supply remains stable, Padayachee warned the situation could change and described the possibility of an LPG shortage as a “cause for concern.”
“It is critical for the government and industry to ensure adequate reserves of LPG and to secure reliable local production to meet seasonal demands, thereby preventing any shortages,” he urged.
Padayachee said the current situation highlights the need for long-term energy security planning.
“While they have reassured the public about current conditions and planned fuel imports, a long-term, robust strategy is essential. This should include increasing local refining capacity, maintaining strategic reserves, and investing in renewable energy sources to reduce our overall dependency on imports,” he stated.
Lorimer urged the public to remain calm despite the uncertainty.
“I think the message that I would say to people is be aware of it. But there’s no reason to get hysterical at all at the moment.”
Padayachee added that South Africa should apply lessons from the electricity crisis to fuel security planning, emphasising diversification and stronger collaboration between government and industry.
He said a comprehensive strategy focused on energy security, sustainability, and resilience is essential to ensure the country is prepared for future disruptions.