By Bheki Mngomezulu

The unexpected announcement by EFF vice-president Floyd Shivambu, that he would not be renewing his party membership and was resigning from Parliament and all EFF positions with immediate effect, sent shock waves that reverberated across the country and beyond. No one saw this coming, not even political punters.

The historic announcement has led to much speculation on why Shivambu took such a decision. Some cited what they referred to as a fallout between him and party leader Julius Malema.

Others said Shivambu was being suffocated by what they termed Malema’s dictatorial tendencies which had seen the party being run like a military camp where orders were issued. A few more interpreted the move as Shivambu’s honest search for greener pastures and a new political home.

While the speculations circulated on various media platforms, Shivambu did not venture into them during his media briefing. In his calm public announcement, he did not divulge the real reason(s) for his decision, except to say he was leaving the EFF amicably.

The big question is: What will this move mean for the EFF and Shivambu? Importantly, What impact will it have on the party’s performance in the local government election in 2026 and the next general election in 2029? Only time will tell.

There are many ways in which the questions could be answered. First, it is important to mention that Malema hinted about the probable negative impact the development would have on the EFF. During his media briefing, his body language portrayed a leader in emotional pain but which he tried to contain for the sake of his party and supporters.

Malema warned his fighters (supporters) that they must brace themselves for turbulence. He said that after the decision by Shivambu, who has been his deputy since the party’s formation, he expected many other senior and ordinary members of the party to resign, especially those who aligned themselves with or supported Shivambu as an individual politician.

In a way, it is not an exaggeration to say that the move by Shivambu came at the wrong time for various reasons.

First, the EFF will be holding its elective conference in a few months when the new leadership will be elected. There were statements in the media that some structures and individuals in the EFF had approached Dr Mbuyiseni Ndlozi to contest against Malema for the party’s presidency. Whether the statements are true remains to be seen.

With the EFF deputy-president leaving the party, some of the EFF’s plans might be scuttled as the focus switches to Shivambu’s decision to leave the party and how the EFF must respond to the move to keep its members united.

Second, Shivambu leaves the EFF soon after the historic May 2024 general election in which the party did not perform well. Like all other parties that did not do well, such as the ANC and the DA, the EFF is doing self-introspection and is busy with an analysis of why it did not perform well.

For the EFF, such an analysis is critical since the party had been doing well up until then and had been on an upward trajectory in other successive elections. Shivambu’s departure will not assist the party in the post-election analysis exercise.

What is interesting to note is the fact that Shivambu announced that he would be joining the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), a party that caused an upset to many political parties, among them the EFF, ANC and IFP in different contexts and in different provinces.

It remains unclear if Shivambu had thought about leaving the EFF and joining the MKP before the election or if he took the decision after seeing the good performance of the MKP versus the weak performance of the EFF in the May election.

Whatever the timing of the decision was, the reality is that his decision is a huge blow to the EFF. As correctly hinted by Malema during his public address, there are many other prominent EFF members who might be encouraged by Shivambu’s decision and follow in his footsteps by either joining the MKP or other political parties.

The fact that Mzwanele Manyi also announced his departure from the EFF and joined the MKP and the speculation that others might be on their way out could sound the death knell for the EFF.

Anticipating the possibility, Malema described Shivambu’s departure as a testing moment for his party. He stated that that should not be interpreted to mean the death of the EFF. As a leader, it is incumbent upon Malema to do this so that his members do not lose hope.

But the fact that Malema and the EFF are like a wounded lion cannot be denied. What will be critical for the party now is how it will regroup and map the way forward to prepare for the 2026 and 2029 elections.

As for the MKP, Shivambu will be an asset. He has party and government experience which some MKP leaders do not have. He also has leadership experience and is smart. If deployed correctly, he might assist the MKP to be a strong opposition party and could also contribute to its growth.

* Prof Bheki Mngomezulu is the director of the Centre for the Advancement of Non-Racialism and Democracy at the Nelson Mandela University.

** The views expressed in this article are the writer’s and do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media