A critical look at the man behind Rwanda’s mirage

By Nco Dube

Paul Kagame, the President of Rwanda, is often hailed as a visionary leader who transformed a nation devastated by genocide into a model of economic growth and stability. His supporters point to Rwanda’s impressive development indicators, its clean streets, and its reputation as a tech hub in East Africa as evidence of his success.

However, beneath this carefully curated image lies a more complex and troubling reality. Kagame’s leadership has been marked by authoritarianism, intolerance of dissent, and a willingness to destabilise neighbouring countries to achieve his goals.

The Rise of Paul Kagame

Paul Kagame’s ascent to power is deeply intertwined with Rwanda’s tragic history. Born in 1957, Kagame grew up as a Tutsi refugee in Uganda after his family fled ethnic violence in Rwanda. He joined the National Resistance Army (NRA) of Yoweri Museveni, which eventually overthrew the Ugandan government in 1986. This experience shaped Kagame’s military acumen and his understanding of guerrilla warfare.

In 1990, Kagame became the military leader of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), a rebel group composed largely of Tutsi exiles. The RPF launched an invasion of Rwanda, sparking a civil war that culminated in the 1994 genocide, during which an estimated 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu were slaughtered by Hutu extremists. The genocide ended when the RPF, under Kagame’s leadership, captured Kigali and took control of the country.

Kagame’s rise to power was initially seen as a beacon of hope for a nation in ruins. He was credited with ending the genocide and initiating a process of reconciliation and reconstruction. However, his methods and motives have since come under scrutiny. Critics argue that Kagame’s RPF was not solely focused on stopping the genocide but also on seizing power, and that its actions during and after the conflict were marked by brutality and human rights abuses.

The Illusion of Democracy

Since becoming president in 2000, Kagame has cultivated an image of Rwanda as a stable, prosperous, and forward-thinking nation. His government has prioritised economic development, attracting foreign investment, and promoting technological innovation. Rwanda’s capital, Kigali, is often described as one of the cleanest and safest cities in Africa, and the country has made significant progress in areas such as healthcare and education.

However, this progress has come at a cost. Kagame’s Rwanda is a one-party state in all but name, with political opposition effectively silenced and dissent ruthlessly suppressed. The ruling RPF dominates the political landscape, and Kagame has won successive elections with suspiciously high margins. The 2024 presidential election, for example, saw Kagame secure 99% of the vote for his fourth consecutive term, a result that defies credibility in any genuinely democratic system.

Kagame’s intolerance of opposition is well-documented. Political opponents, journalists, and activists who dare to criticise the government often face harassment, imprisonment, or worse. High-profile cases include the assassination of former intelligence chief Patrick Karegeya in South Africa in 2014 and the mysterious death of opposition leader André Kagwa Rwisereka in 2010. These incidents, along with numerous reports of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, paint a grim picture of life under Kagame’s rule.

The government’s control extends to the media and civil society. Independent journalists are routinely arrested or forced into exile, while critical voices are silenced through intimidation and legal harassment. Rwanda’s constitution, which was amended in 2015 to allow Kagame to run for a third term and potentially remain in power until 2034, has been widely criticised as a tool to entrench his authoritarian rule.

Dictatorial Tendencies and Human Rights Abuses

Kagame’s leadership style is often described as authoritarian, with a focus on maintaining absolute control over all aspects of Rwandan society. His government has been accused of using state institutions, including the judiciary and security forces, to suppress dissent and eliminate perceived threats.

One of the most controversial aspects of Kagame’s rule is his approach to justice and reconciliation. While the government has made efforts to address the legacy of the genocide through initiatives such as the Gacaca courts, critics argue that these efforts have been selective and politically motivated. Many Hutus who were accused of participating in the genocide were tried and convicted, often without due process, while allegations of RPF atrocities have been largely ignored.

Kagame’s intolerance of criticism extends beyond Rwanda’s borders. Rwandan exiles and dissidents living abroad have been targeted by the government, with reports of assassinations, kidnappings, and intimidation campaigns in countries such as South Africa, Uganda, and the United Kingdom. These actions have drawn condemnation from human rights organisations and foreign governments, but Kagame has dismissed such criticism as interference in Rwanda’s internal affairs.

Destabilising the Region: Rwanda’s Role in the DRC

Perhaps the most damning aspect of Kagame’s leadership is his alleged role in destabilising neighbouring countries, particularly the DRC. Since the mid-1990s, Rwanda has been accused of supporting rebel groups in the eastern DRC, a region rich in mineral resources such as coltan, gold, and diamonds.

The most notorious of these groups is the M23, a rebel movement that has been implicated in widespread human rights abuses, including massacres, sexual violence, and the displacement of civilians. The United Nations and numerous human rights organisations have documented Rwanda’s involvement in arming, training, and financing the M23, although Kagame has consistently denied these allegations.

Rwanda’s actions in the DRC are driven by a combination of security concerns, economic interests, and a desire to project power beyond its borders. The eastern DRC has long been a refuge for armed groups opposed to the Rwandan government, including the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a Hutu militia with links to the 1994 genocide. Kagame has justified Rwanda’s interventions as necessary to protect its national security, but critics argue that these actions have exacerbated the conflict and contributed to the suffering of millions of Congolese civilians.

The DRC conflict has also strained Rwanda’s relations with other African nations, including South Africa. The recent killing of 13 South African peacekeepers by M23 rebels has heightened tensions between the two countries, with President Cyril Ramaphosa calling for accountability and Kagame dismissing the allegations as baseless.

A Legacy of Contradictions

Paul Kagame’s legacy is one of contradictions. On the one hand, he is credited with rebuilding Rwanda after the genocide and transforming it into a model of development. On the other hand, his authoritarianism, intolerance of dissent, and destabilising actions in the region have tarnished his reputation and raised serious questions about his leadership.

Kagame’s supporters argue that his strongman approach is necessary to maintain stability in a country with a history of ethnic violence. However, his critics contend that his methods undermine the very principles of democracy and human rights that Rwanda claims to uphold.

Conclusion

Paul Kagame is a complex and controversial figure, a leader who has achieved remarkable progress for his country but at a significant cost. His authoritarian tendencies, intolerance of opposition, and alleged role in destabilising the DRC raise serious concerns about his legacy and the future of Rwanda.

As Rwanda prepared for another sham election in July 2024 which he won with a dizzying 99% margin, it was clear that Kagame’s grip on power remained firm. However, the challenges facing his government both domestically and internationally, are unlikely to disappear. The question is not just whether Kagame can maintain his hold on power, but whether Rwanda can truly achieve lasting peace and prosperity under his leadership.

For the people of Rwanda and the wider region, the stakes could not be higher. The time has come for a critical reassessment of Kagame’s leadership and its impact on Africa’s Great Lakes region. Only by confronting the contradictions and addressing the abuses can Rwanda hope to build a future that is truly inclusive, democratic, and just.

(Dube is a political economist, businessman, and social commentator on Ukhozi FM. His views don't necessarily reflect those of the Sunday Tribune, Independent Media or IOL)