The ANC’s Final Reckoning: A Movement on the Brink of Obsolescence

The African National Congress (ANC), once the embodiment of South Africa’s liberation hopes, now faces an existential crisis of a magnitude unprecedented in its history. The 2024 election results, which forced the ANC into a coalition government for the first time since 1994, were not simply a political setback; they signalled a profound repudiation of the party’s three-decade record in power.

This moment is not just perilous for the ANC; it is a turning point for South Africa’s democracy, testing whether the nation’s oldest liberation movement can reinvent itself or will fade into irrelevance.

The Collapse of Trust and the Crisis of Legitimacy

At the heart of the crisis is a fundamental breakdown of trust between the party and the South African public. The social contract that once bound the ANC to its supporters has been shattered by years of broken promises, endemic corruption, and a leadership culture increasingly focused on personal enrichment rather than public service. The party’s share of the national vote plummeted below 50% in 2024; a symbolic and practical collapse of its claim to be the “natural party of government”.

This electoral shock was not an isolated event but the culmination of a long decline. Public disgust with corruption has become pervasive, fuelled by a seemingly endless series of scandals. The recent controversy over Sector Education and Training Authority (Seta) appointments is emblematic: regardless of the qualifications of those appointed, the process was tainted by the perception of patronage and factional manipulation, reinforcing the belief that ANC governance is synonymous with self-dealing.

The erosion of trust extends beyond corruption. Years of failed service delivery have left millions trapped in poverty and unemployment, while the ANC’s rhetoric of “radical economic transformation” has become increasingly disconnected from the lived reality of ordinary South Africans. The result is a party that no longer receives the benefit of the doubt; every action is viewed through a lens of suspicion, and every policy announcement is met with scepticism.

The Corruption Crisis

The institutionalisation of corruption has eroded the party’s moral authority and undermined its capacity to govern effectively. The ANC’s current approach to corruption – addressing only the most egregious cases under publice – is no longer sufficient. To regain public confidence, the party must adopt a zero-tolerance stance, removing not just those convicted of wrongdoing but anyone whose presence damages the party’s credibility.

The continued presence of scandal-tainted figures in leadership positions, regardless of faction, undermines any claim to renewal and perpetuates the perception that the ANC is incapable of self-correction.

Policy Paralysis and Governance Failures

The ANC’s inability to deliver on basic governance has become a defining feature of its decline. Service delivery failures are widespread, from unreliable electricity and water supply to failing education and healthcare systems.

Eskom, the state power utility, has been plagued by mismanagement and corruption, leading to rolling blackouts that have cost the economy billions and further eroded public trust. In 2023 alone, load shedding was estimated to have cost the country R138 billion in lost productivity.

The education system, rather than serving as an equaliser, continues to reproduce apartheid-era inequalities, failing poor black children generation after generation. Crime has become so normalised that South Africans live behind electric fences, with police and intelligence services too under-resourced and politicised to provide basic security.

In each of these crises, the ANC’s response has been characterised by slogans and blame-shifting rather than substantive solutions, substituting rhetoric for accountability.

Factionalism and the Erosion of Leadership

Factional battles have consumed the ANC, transforming it from a movement of national purpose into a coalition of competing patronage networks. Internal divisions over leadership and policy direction have led to infighting, leaving the party vulnerable to challenges from opposition forces. The much-publicised battles between ANC factions are not ideological contests about the country’s future but struggles over access to state resources and patronage.

This factionalism has tragic consequences for governance. While leaders jockey for positions, municipalities collapse, infrastructure decays, and millions of young people face lifetimes of joblessness. The party’s inward-looking, oppositional mindset has left it intellectually bankrupt, unable to generate new ideas or address South Africa’s mounting challenges.

The Rise of Opposition

The decline of the ANC has created space for opposition parties like the EFF, uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) and the DA to mount serious challenges. In the 2019 national elections, the ANC secured just over 57% of the vote – its lowest share since the end of apartheid – and this fell even further in 2024 when the party seismically dipped below the 50% mark.

The loss of its parliamentary majority forced the ANC into a coalition government, ending the era of automatic dominance. The coalition government has exposed new vulnerabilities. The ANC’s inability to govern unilaterally has required it to engage in power-sharing and compromise, a fundamental shift from its previous approach.

Tensions within the coalition, particularly with the DA, have already surfaced, with disputes over fiscal policy and governance priorities threatening the stability of the arrangement. The business community, which had urged the formation of the coalition as a path to stability, now watches anxiously as the government struggles to find common ground.

The Missed Opportunities for Reform

The ANC’s disregard for internal reform efforts has exacerbated its decline. The controversial Turnaround Strategy 2025, developed after the ANC Cadre Summit in 2020 and 2021, was intended as a blueprint for renewal but was rejected as an attempt to unseat Ramaphosa.

While never adopted as an official party document, it acknowledged a crisis of legitimacy, credibility, and leadership, warning that the party faced “a crisis of unimaginable intensity and proportion”.

Yet, the leadership failed to implement its recommendations, prioritising personal interests over the collective good. This failure to act on its own diagnosis has left the ANC immobilised, incapable of leading the country out of crisis. Leadership is no longer earned through struggle but “grabbed through other means”, resulting in a party that exists primarily to perpetuate itself. The window for meaningful reform is closing rapidly, with the 2026 local elections looming as the next major test of whether the ANC can reverse its decline.

The Economic Dimension: Stagnation and Unemployment

South Africa’s economic malaise is both a cause and a consequence of the ANC’s decline. The unemployment rate has reached historic highs, with over 32% of the population out of work and youth unemployment at a staggering 63%. Economic growth has stagnated, consistently falling below 2% over the past decade, and key sectors like manufacturing and agriculture have failed to generate meaningful job opportunities.

The decline of state-owned enterprises has compounded the crisis, undermining business confidence and investment. Service delivery failures, rooted in inadequate skills, corruption, and maladministration, have further eroded the state’s capacity to meet citizens’ basic needs. The result is a nation on the brink of financial collapse, with rising frustration and disillusionment among the population.

The Dangers of “Anti-Future” Politics

Perhaps the most damning indictment of the ANC is its descent into what some analysts call “anti-future” politics – an orientation defined more by what the party opposes than by any coherent vision for the future. The ANC’s rhetoric remains stuck in 1994, endlessly refighting old battles while new crises multiply. Instead of articulating a compelling vision for tomorrow, the party substitutes slogans for solutions and blame-shifting for accountability.

This failure of imagination threatens to condemn South Africa to permanent stagnation at a time when bold, creative leadership is desperately needed. The ANC’s inability to adapt to the evolving political landscape, particularly the transition to coalition politics, reflects a deeper unwillingness to acknowledge the end of its era of automatic dominance.

The Path Forward: Reform or Irrelevance

Despite the gravity of its predicament, the ANC’s path to redemption remains open, though the window is rapidly closing. The party must commit to a ruthless programme of clean governance, establishing and enforcing clear ethical standards for leadership. This means removing not only those implicated in corruption but anyone whose presence damages public trust, across all factions. Governing in coalition requires a profound shift in approach.

The ANC must embrace genuine power-sharing, ending the practice of unilateral decision-making and demonstrating real willingness to compromise on policies and appointments. Reconnecting with communities is equally critical; the party’s traditional grassroots networks have atrophied, and rebuilding them demands sustained, meaningful engagement between campaigns.

On economic policy, the ANC must move beyond slogans to deliver tangible improvements in people’s lives. This starts with fixing basic governance failures – ensuring a reliable electricity and water supply, improving education outcomes, and creating an environment where businesses can thrive. Credible job creation programmes and professional management of state-owned enterprises would demonstrate serious commitment to reform.

Across Africa, liberation movements have often deteriorated into corrupt, ineffective shells of their former selves once in power. The pattern is familiar: initial legitimacy gives way to complacency, then corruption, and eventually electoral rejection or authoritarian entrenchment. The ANC stands perilously close to this precipice, with its continued relevance hanging in the balance.

The party’s future – and indeed South Africa’s – depends on whether ANC leaders finally recognise the severity of their crisis and respond with the courage and vision it demands. The people are watching, and their patience has worn thin. The time for half-measures and empty rhetoric is over. Either the ANC changes now, or it consigns itself to the dustbin of history.

Dube is a political economist, businessman, and social commentator on Ukhozi FM. His views don't necessarily reflect those of the Sunday Tribune and Independent Media. This is an edited version; you can get the full version on our online platforms or at www.ncodube.blog

SUNDAY TRIBUNE