US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s snubbing of the G20 meeting of foreign ministers could be early signs that South Africa’s ambitions of retaining its Africa's Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) status are in trouble, says University of Johannesburg economics professor, Daniel Meyer.
South Africa holds the G20 presidency until November this year, and is set to host the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the G20 February from 20 to 21.
On a post on X, formerly Twitter, Rubio said: “South Africa is doing very bad things. Expropriating private property. Using G20 to promote ‘solidarity, equality, [and] sustainability.’ In other words: DEI and climate change.”
“My job is to advance America’s national interests, not waste taxpayer money or coddle anti-Americanism.”
There have been simmering tensions between South Africa and the US over what South Africa has described as “misinformation” peddled by US president Donald Trump relating to the country’s land reform laws and property rights.
South Africa hopes to retain its AGOA status, with a decision expected to be announced later this year.
AGOA provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market. It does this by allocating a special program indicator ('D') to approximately 6,800 tariff lines in the US tariff schedule, which allows US importers to clear such goods - sourced from eligible African countries - duty-free under AGOA. Thirty-two countries were eligible for AGOA benefits in 2024. The AGOA legislation has been renewed on different occasions, most recently in 2015, when its period of validity was extended to September 2025.
Meyer said Rubio’s remarks suggest South Africa will have an uphill battle to convince the US to allow it to stay on the list of countries that benefit from the AGOA deal.
“With all these statements coming from the US and our response, I think that AGOA will be cancelled. We are exporting a lot more to the US than we importing, so we have a very positive trade balance with them. Our vehicle industry is the main one that will be affected, it’s a big industry in terms of our manufacturing sector, about 30% of manufacturing will be hugely affected because our prices will not be competitive if he adds tariffs on our vehicles imported to the US.”
Minerals are the second highest, then fruits and agricultural products.
“In terms of AGOA we’ve got a zero-rated import tax to the US and like he's done and promised to put up the tariffs he can easily put it up to 30% then the vehicle prices would be too expensive. So the vehicle manufacturers will have to decide whether they stay here or are going to move to a different place where they can have a competitive advantage, so at the moment the vehicle industry is on a knife's edge.”
Wits international relations professor John Stremlau said: “AGOA was a bipartisan agreement and PEPFAR was pioneered by a republican George W Bush and AGOA similarly has a bipartisan support in Congress but the executive is making a rampant, ill-advised grasp for power in the United States context and it’s spilling over into foreign policy.
“Rubio not going to the G20... does not serve the US interests. Cyril Ramaphosa will carry on and he should carry on and if it means that he builds bridges to other G20 members who are also BRICS+ members, fine. The rest of the world is getting on with its business and to the exclusion of the United States.”
Reacting to Rubio’s decision, International Relations and Cooperation Minister Ronald Lamola said: “Our G20 Presidency is not confined to just climate change but also equitable treatment for nations of the Global South, ensuring an equal global system for all. These are important principles that we remain open to pursue and engage the United States on.”
Cape Times