A recently released United Nations report shows that, at current pledges, the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) are leading our planet to a minimum of 2.5°C warming, a level deemed catastrophic by scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
NDCs are basically a state's national effort to tackle emissions and mitigate climate change.
The world's nations agreed last year at the COP26 conference in Glasgow, to revisit and improve their climate plans, however, only 23 out of 193 nations have since submitted updated plans to the UN.
In a 2019 report, the IPCC indicated that to curb warming, global CO2 emissions needed to be cut by 43% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels, but current climate projections show a 10.6% increase instead.
Although this is an improvement from last year which showed a 13.7% increase by 2030, and a continued rise of emissions after 2030, it is still not nearly enough to keep warming below the 1.5°C threshold.
“The downward trend in emissions expected by 2030 shows that nations have made some progress this year,” said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change.
“But the science is clear and so are our climate goals under the Paris Agreement. We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5 degrees Celsius world.
“Government decisions and actions must reflect the level of urgency, the gravity of the threats we are facing, and the shortness of the time we have,” he warned.
Stiell underscored that national governments need to strengthen their climate action plans now and implement them in the next eight years.
“...It’s disappointing. Government decisions and actions must reflect the level of urgency, the gravity of the threats we are facing, and the shortness of the time we have remaining to avoid the devastating consequences of runaway climate change,” highlighted Stiell.
There are some positives. Most of the nations who submitted a new plan strengthened their commitments, demonstrating more ambition in addressing climate change, according to the agency.
More positive trends were found in a second UN Climate Change assessment published last Wednesday looking at long-term net-zero strategies.
Sixty-two countries, accounting for 93% of the world’s GDP, 47% of the global population, and around 69% of total energy consumption, have these plans in place.
“This is a strong signal that the world is starting to aim for net-zero emissions,” the agency said.