Durban — Pietermaritzburg and surrounding towns are likely to experience severe drought that will affect livestock productivity and agriculture output, possibly impacting food security, as the effects of climate change intensify.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has sounded the alarm bells as an early warning measure through a workshop held with several role-players who have had to respond to emergencies when disasters in the form of floods, hailstorms and lightning strikes have battered local communities.
According to a SAWS report, a pattern had been noted in Richmond, Howick, Mooi River and Wartburg.
“Negative trends are observed across uMgungundlovu District Municipality, suggesting reduced stream flow and increased and persistent drought,” read the report.
It said the impacts of the drought would include:
- Reduced water levels in reservoirs;
- A reduction of crop yields;
- The loss of animal production; and
- An overall increased cost of agriculture production.
The district is known for producing vegetables, sugar cane, macadamia nuts, livestock and dairy products.
“Extreme heat can cause heat stress and sub-optimal livestock performance which will have a negative impact on animal productivity. Heat stress is a major source of production losses in the dairy, beef and poultry industries.”
SAWS research department director Nico Kroese said the short-term outlook, which covered the period until 2030, showed that weather patterns would remain intense.
“What we have discovered is that severe weather will be more intense and this will have an impact on economic sectors such as agriculture and farming and overall food security,” said Kroese.
He said the report was important and could assist small-scale farmers and communities to develop survival mechanisms.
“The idea is that by developing early warning signals there is a better chance of mitigating the effects of the patterns. The idea of early warning systems is to soften the blow and ensure that, where possible, property and lives are saved,” Kroese said.
He said they had conducted the workshop to ensure that the information reached a wider community.
He noted that the severe rains seen in some parts of the province, including the Durban floods in 2022, the hailstorms in northern KZN and the heavy rains in Ladysmith, all formed part of the severe pattern of intense weather.
The two-day municipal risk knowledge-sharing workshop, according to the weather service, is aimed at ensuring that local structures and communities, in particular, evade the possible deadly effects of some disasters.
Lwejeleputswa in the Free State, uMgungundlovu in KwaZulu-Natal and Vhembe in Limpopo were the three district municipalities that were selected as part of the pilot project that looked at weather patterns and their impact, and projected the future conditions.
Kroese said while South Africa was prone to severe weather patterns, it was important to inform the wider community. He said the weather service was looking at approaching institutions such as the Development Bank to source funds that would help to ensure that such workshops were held throughout the country.
In recent times, the Department of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs has had to respond to disasters in parts of KZN that have been attributed to climate change and have affected many communities, sometimes resulting in the loss of life.
Sunday Tribune